Client Update - 20th June 2025

Interest rates in the US and the UK have been held steady this week by their respective central banks as inflation refuses to fall, however news has focused more on the conflict between Iran and Israel, especially since Donald Trump joined the conversation. Top officials in Washington are preparing for a possible strike in the coming days, while Trump told reporters he will make his “final decision one second before it’s due.” Very helpful.

“Anyone slobbering for the US to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/Maga. We are sick and tired of foreign wars.”

Those are the words of congress woman Marjorie Taylor Greene — normally regarded as one of Donald Trump’s most loyal followers. The Maga she refers to is the movement founded by Trump to “Make America Great Again”. The comments highlight the deep split that has emerged inside this Maga movement as the US president warms to the idea of using America’s military might against Iran.

For many of Trump’s most ardent supporters, this would be seen as a deep betrayal. One of his most consistent campaign themes was his condemnation of “forever wars”. In one typical outburst in 2019, he proclaimed: “Going into the Middle East is the worst decision ever made.” Many of the politicians and pundits who are most strongly associated with the Maga movement have now come out explicitly against deeper US involvement in the war on Iran. The critics include Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon and former congressman Matt Gaetz. Carlson has used his newsletter to urge: “Drop Israel. Let them fight their own wars”, adding: “What happens next will define Donald Trump’s presidency.”

Vice-president JD Vance is known to have been sceptical about the case for war with Iran for many months. He has tried to reassure uneasy Maga supporters that the president is “only interested in using the American military to accomplish the American people’s goals”. An Economist/YouGov poll taken a few days ago suggested that 53 per cent of Trump supporters opposed the US joining the war, with just 19 per cent supporting involvement. That could change, if and when American planes start flying sorties over Iran. The early days of a war often create a “rally round the flag” effect. But if the war goes wrong, there will be bitter recriminations. Iran could be the issue that breaks the Maga movement.

As usual, when questioned, President Trump was crystal clear on his intentions. “I may do it, I may not do it. I mean – nobody knows that I am going to do.” I assume that includes himself as well.

The uncertainty adds to tensions across the Middle East almost a week since Israel began its assault on Iran. Oil-rich Gulf Nations were somewhat blindsided by Israel’s attack. Only a few weeks ago, they were hosting Trump, pledging billions in investments and flattering him with lavish receptions. They believed that gave them an inside track into the US president’s camp. In reality, they are mere bystanders trying to work out his next move — just like the rest of the world. This insight does seem hard to come by, when he appears to be making it up as he goes along.

While Tehran is defying Trumps demand for “unconditional surrender,” you would hope to assume that Trump is trying to create a window for last-minute diplomacy. Foreign ministers from the UK, France, and Germany plan nuclear talks with their Iranian counterpart in Geneva over the weekend.

The crisis is evolving fast — and sadly Trump’s final-second decision may shape the Middle East and indeed his presidency for years to come. Something else to think about, just what we didn’t need, but at least the sun is shining. Do have a good weekend.