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The first few weeks of 2026 have been anything but dull. Over just one weekend, America threatened to slap Canada with 100% tariffs, US Congress started squabbling toward yet another possible shutdown, Japan experienced its own Liz Truss style bond meltdown, China accused one of its own generals of leaking nuclear secrets, and the US dollar continued to weaken. And yet, in the middle of all this “noise,” the stock market has pretty much sailed through the storm as if it was a

European leaders in Brussels breathed a collective sigh of relief this week after Donald Trump suddenly decided not to slap new tariffs on them or try to “buy” Greenland. It was, in their eyes, the diplomatic equivalent of waking up from a bad dream — one that could have wrecked decades of transatlantic friendship. Trump’s original plan to grab Greenland and punish Europe with trade barriers had shocked leaders from Copenhagen to Berlin at this week’s gathering in Davos. The

Markets have come a long way in the last ten years. 2009 heralded ten years of low interest rates, ample liquidity via Quantitative Easing and a strengthening global supply chain. In the last three years this has morphed into higher inflation, huge public debt, and reshoring of industrial capacity and sudden fall in global trade. As a result, policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and capital movements now influence markets as strongly as traditional economic cycles. For inves

Looking back on last year, it was very pleasing to see that investment returns defied the barrage of political and economic noise throughout the year. In spite of ongoing debates around whether governments are spending too much, if the economy can continue to grow, the impact of military flare-ups across the world, and concerns over various market bubbles, nonetheless major equity indices were up between 12-20% in 2025, with the fourth quarter doing nothing to halt the gains.

Responding to an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) last week, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates yesterday by 0.25%. Commentary focussed on slow growth and falling inflation, with the main area of concern being the economic growth forecasts. It was not exactly reassuring to see the BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote five to four in favour of a sixth rate cut since the summer of 2024, as it forecast that inflation is likely to fall close to its

Our chancellor has allegedly not been forthcoming with the truth. She has also implicated the Prime Minister in her misinformation. The Head of the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has been sacrificed after the release of last week’s budget information before the actual budget. I remember apologising for repeatedly writing about President Trump earlier in the year, and it feels that I am now continuously writing about our embattled chancellor. If the markets and the publ

The run-up to the 2025 Budget may have been characterised by greater conjecture about what would, or wouldn’t, be announced than in perhaps any other “pre-fiscal event” period in the UK’s modern political history. The last-minute leak of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts only added to the sense of anticipation of what would be revealed. For better or for worse, the Chancellor has now delivered her statement, and the official “Red Book” of policy announcements (

Back to the markets this week and I will start with Nvidia, whose sales of microchips at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom in the last quarter rose even faster than Wall Street anticipated. The world’s most valuable company reported its revenue rose 62% year on year to $57bn in the three months to the end of October, beating consensus estimates. Nvidia’s revenue forecast for the current quarter was $65bn, about $3bn more than Wall Street expected. Having had a rec

Sir Keir Starmer is nervously looking over his shoulder. A huge majority 18 months ago has turned quickly into contempt and disillusionment. These days, a Prime Minister is not safe in power. Baroness Thatcher’s dramatic downfall defined a new era where party leaders and even Prime Ministers could not safely assume they could remain in post in almost any circumstances. After her departure, a system whereby Tory MPs can register their lack of confidence in the party leader was

The chancellor’s speech on Tuesday was a strange thing indeed. Emergency speeches in the early hours of the day are normally reserved for resignations or drastic news – sadly, we got neither. Having considered her intentions over the last few days, it seems more likely that she was talking to the markets rather than the general public, to smooth concerns that she has no plan. As I have written previously, UK Gilt yields remain high, therefore the cost of maintaining our almos

No Halloween jokes needed, as this week I must revert to a familiar supernatural force – that of US President Donald Trump. The trade “conflict” between the US and China has caused market volatility to increase in recent weeks, so if we are to believe the news this week, any improvement in this relationship is good news for clients’ portfolios. As I write on Thursday, President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping have agreed to postpone export controls on rare earths and com

Now, a break from the norm, as it is all getting a bit depressing. If you wish for further depression, I will revert to the budget and economy later in this email. As the world looks for ways to curb biodiversity loss, new financial tools are being developed to fund the preservation and restoration of ecosystems. I imagine my compliance department would ask me to point out here that this is a news article and not financial advice for a new investment! The latest example is in

Which side of the argument is coming across as having more respect and class? This week when discussing their latest trade escalations, China spoke of “mutual respect” and “peaceful coexistence,” but Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Chief, described a very different encounter when a top Chinese trade official arrived in Washington. Bessent was reported to state that the negotiator turned up uninvited and acted “unhinged.” The Trump circus continues, despite his success in the M

Last week was the turn of the Labour party, this week was the Conservative party conference. Rather like a game of cricket on a wet day,...

Traditionally, at a Conservative party annual conference, Labour are in the cross hairs for some good old-fashioned bashing, and vice...

Despite Nigel Farage deflecting much of the news flow away from Sir Keir Starmer this week, the Prime Minister still fell foul of a...

Donald Trump is back in the UK. At the state banquet he announced - “The bond of kinship and identity between America and the United...

Whilst I am sure this is not what he would have wanted, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has sought to create opportunity after the...

I cannot decide if Rachel Reeves’ decision to announce the next UK budget date on the 26th November 2025 was a mere coincidence to fall...

This week we heard that the UK economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing expectations but underlining the...