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Over the past 48 hours, the geopolitical climate in the Middle East has shifted noticeably, and so has the rhetoric coming from Washington. A rather weary looking President Donald Trump addressed the US nation last night and began signalling a softer, more conciliatory stance stating that the conflict was almost over. This was a sudden change from some of his most forceful threats just days before. Markets, ever sensitive to the ebb and flow of geopolitical risk, have respond

Throughout this week, you may have noticed that US President Donald Trump has occasionally asserted that the United States is engaged in meaningful talks with Iranian leadership to end the ongoing war. He understatedly described Iranians as “great negotiators” and claimed they were “begging to make a deal,” even suggesting that the U.S. and Iran were already aligned on several key points. Trump also implied that his administration had paused certain military actions because n

Major central banks spent this week navigating a delicate balance: maintaining credibility in their inflation fighting campaigns while acknowledging that the escalating conflict involving Iran has injected fresh uncertainty into the global economic outlook. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and several others opted to keep interest rates unchanged, signalling caution rather than complacency as geopolitical tensions threaten to reshape the path of in

It will not surprise you that this week’s missive focuses on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued his first public statement calling for the Strait of Hormuz to “remain closed”, signalling a hardening of Iran’s strategy. He also warned that Iran would continue targeting US bases in the Gulf, despite intelligence sources suggesting he has already been injured during the conflict. The closure of the strait—through whic

Our thoughts this week have focussed on those caught up in the Middle Eastern conflict centred around Iran and Israel, that has since spread out into the surrounding region. The latest escalation—particularly Iran widening its response beyond Israel and signalling potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—has increased concerns about a spike in global energy prices and the risk of a broader economic slowdown. The Strait remains open, but higher insurance costs and the thre

What a confusing world we find ourselves in. Cast your mind back ten years – imagine one of the leading businesses in the marketplace announcing forecast revenue of $78 billion dollars in a three-month period, and its share price doesn’t react. That is indeed strange, but here we are today. Chip maker Nvidia’s latest earnings underline the scale of the AI boom but also how nervous investors have become about how long it can last. The company delivered another blockbuster quar

For once, the UK’s inflation story is drifting from grim to vaguely cheerful. After four years of outpacing the US and euro area, and after a 3.4% rise in prices over the past year, inflation now looks set to drop sharply. Come April, it is expected to fall to around 2%, basically bang on the Bank of England’s target. Even President Trump might secretly envy a central bank that looks like it can actually hit 2%.   Three forces are doing the heavy lifting. First, energy. The c

Our Prime Minister is hanging on, but only just. The argument goes that although Sir Keir Starmer’s government is weak and unpopular, replacing him would likely make things worse. British politics has seen leaders cling on after losing authority, and maybe we should hope Starmer can as well – not because he can turn this around, but because the alternatives are worse. If Starmer falls, his successor would almost certainly come from Labour’s left, pushing policies voters have

I do not imagine that any of this is new to you, however I should start this week’s missive with comment on Sir Keir Starmer and his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney. The story has quite fairly dominated news flows this week after the prime minister admitted he did know about Peter Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein from a document he was handed at the end of December 2024. Crucially this was before he appointed Mandelson as British ambassador to the United States.

The first few weeks of 2026 have been anything but dull. Over just one weekend, America threatened to slap Canada with 100% tariffs, US Congress started squabbling toward yet another possible shutdown, Japan experienced its own Liz Truss style bond meltdown, China accused one of its own generals of leaking nuclear secrets, and the US dollar continued to weaken. And yet, in the middle of all this “noise,” the stock market has pretty much sailed through the storm as if it was a

European leaders in Brussels breathed a collective sigh of relief this week after Donald Trump suddenly decided not to slap new tariffs on them or try to “buy” Greenland. It was, in their eyes, the diplomatic equivalent of waking up from a bad dream — one that could have wrecked decades of transatlantic friendship. Trump’s original plan to grab Greenland and punish Europe with trade barriers had shocked leaders from Copenhagen to Berlin at this week’s gathering in Davos. The

Markets have come a long way in the last ten years. 2009 heralded ten years of low interest rates, ample liquidity via Quantitative Easing and a strengthening global supply chain. In the last three years this has morphed into higher inflation, huge public debt, and reshoring of industrial capacity and sudden fall in global trade. As a result, policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and capital movements now influence markets as strongly as traditional economic cycles. For inves

Looking back on last year, it was very pleasing to see that investment returns defied the barrage of political and economic noise throughout the year. In spite of ongoing debates around whether governments are spending too much, if the economy can continue to grow, the impact of military flare-ups across the world, and concerns over various market bubbles, nonetheless major equity indices were up between 12-20% in 2025, with the fourth quarter doing nothing to halt the gains.

Responding to an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) last week, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates yesterday by 0.25%. Commentary focussed on slow growth and falling inflation, with the main area of concern being the economic growth forecasts. It was not exactly reassuring to see the BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote five to four in favour of a sixth rate cut since the summer of 2024, as it forecast that inflation is likely to fall close to its

Our chancellor has allegedly not been forthcoming with the truth. She has also implicated the Prime Minister in her misinformation. The Head of the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has been sacrificed after the release of last week’s budget information before the actual budget. I remember apologising for repeatedly writing about President Trump earlier in the year, and it feels that I am now continuously writing about our embattled chancellor. If the markets and the publ

The run-up to the 2025 Budget may have been characterised by greater conjecture about what would, or wouldn’t, be announced than in perhaps any other “pre-fiscal event” period in the UK’s modern political history. The last-minute leak of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts only added to the sense of anticipation of what would be revealed. For better or for worse, the Chancellor has now delivered her statement, and the official “Red Book” of policy announcements (

Back to the markets this week and I will start with Nvidia, whose sales of microchips at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom in the last quarter rose even faster than Wall Street anticipated. The world’s most valuable company reported its revenue rose 62% year on year to $57bn in the three months to the end of October, beating consensus estimates. Nvidia’s revenue forecast for the current quarter was $65bn, about $3bn more than Wall Street expected. Having had a rec

Sir Keir Starmer is nervously looking over his shoulder. A huge majority 18 months ago has turned quickly into contempt and disillusionment. These days, a Prime Minister is not safe in power. Baroness Thatcher’s dramatic downfall defined a new era where party leaders and even Prime Ministers could not safely assume they could remain in post in almost any circumstances. After her departure, a system whereby Tory MPs can register their lack of confidence in the party leader was

The chancellor’s speech on Tuesday was a strange thing indeed. Emergency speeches in the early hours of the day are normally reserved for resignations or drastic news – sadly, we got neither. Having considered her intentions over the last few days, it seems more likely that she was talking to the markets rather than the general public, to smooth concerns that she has no plan. As I have written previously, UK Gilt yields remain high, therefore the cost of maintaining our almos

No Halloween jokes needed, as this week I must revert to a familiar supernatural force – that of US President Donald Trump. The trade “conflict” between the US and China has caused market volatility to increase in recent weeks, so if we are to believe the news this week, any improvement in this relationship is good news for clients’ portfolios. As I write on Thursday, President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping have agreed to postpone export controls on rare earths and com