Client Update - 27th February 2026

What a confusing world we find ourselves in. Cast your mind back ten years – imagine one of the leading businesses in the marketplace announcing forecast revenue of $78 billion dollars in a three-month period, and its share price doesn’t react. That is indeed strange, but here we are today. Chip maker Nvidia’s latest earnings underline the scale of the AI boom but also how nervous investors have become about how long it can last. The company delivered another blockbuster quarter, yet the share price barely moved.

Nvidia forecast revenue of $78 billion for the current quarter, comfortably ahead of analysts’ expectations of about $72.1 billion. For its 2026 fiscal year, Nvidia’s total revenue is estimated at roughly $216 billion, with annual net income surpassing $120 billion for the first time. Much of this performance is driven by demand for its AI chips in data centres, where revenue has grown to more than 90% of the company’s overall sales.

Ordinarily, such a strong beat and bullish outlook would send the shares sharply higher. Instead, Nvidia’s stock was flat to slightly weaker in after hours trading, echoing earlier quarters where huge beats failed to spark a sustained rally. The muted reaction reflects worries that Nvidia’s growth is heavily tied to a small group of hyperscale cloud and social media companies, which are already spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI hardware and data centres each year. Investors fear that any slowdown or pause in that capex cycle could hit Nvidia’s sales hard.

There are also signs of strain in the broader AI supply chain. Analysts and industry reports highlight lack of supply in memory chips and other components needed to build full AI systems, raising the risk that bottlenecks could cap how quickly Nvidia and its customers can keep growing. At the same time, markets have been volatile for weeks as traders debate whether the AI build out will transform productivity across the economy or prove to be another investment bubble. Against this backdrop, Nvidia’s results are being treated less as a simple growth story and more as a barometer of the entire AI cycle. Last week it was the turn of the long-distance trucking industry in the US to suffer a sell off as rumours spread that AI would be driving the trucks in the not-too-distant future.

For now, the numbers suggest the AI investment is still in full force, with demand for Nvidia’s chips outstripping supply and a backlog that points to continued strength. But the flat share price in the face of such extraordinary earnings shows how high expectations already are and how sensitive sentiment has become to any hint that the AI boom might eventually cool. Lower inflation and therefore lower interest rates will likely keep the party going for now, but we are keeping a close eye on it. Do have a good weekend.