Client Update - 2nd April 2026

Over the past 48 hours, the geopolitical climate in the Middle East has shifted noticeably, and so has the rhetoric coming from Washington. A rather weary looking President Donald Trump addressed the US nation last night and began signalling a softer, more conciliatory stance stating that the conflict was almost over. This was a sudden change from some of his most forceful threats just days before. Markets, ever sensitive to the ebb and flow of geopolitical risk, have responded with their own blend of relief, caution, and optimism. Caution remains as Trump spoke about “other” countries taking responsibility for the Straits of Hormuz, underlining that this remains a delicate situation and Iran retain control on this crucial waterway for the time being and energy price fluctuations have continued.

For weeks, Trump’s messaging on Iran had been uncompromising, with threats of “obliterating” key energy infrastructure if Tehran did not yield. But in the last two days, his language has shifted toward the possibility of negotiations and a quicker end to the conflict. Reports indicate he has spoken of “serious discussions” with Iranian officials and has suggested that U.S. operations in Iran could conclude “very shortly.”

This marks a notable contrast to earlier warnings of expanded military action, including potential strikes on Kharg Island, a critical hub for Iran’s oil exports. The pivot appears to be driven partly by the mounting economic and diplomatic pressures surrounding the conflict, as well as the growing strain on global energy markets.

In a televised address, Trump said the U.S. mission’s “core strategic objectives are nearing completion,” a phrase widely interpreted as a signal that Washington may be preparing to wind down its involvement.

The first note of this change overnight on Tuesday caused a leap in global equities prices as the Middle East remains a central artery of global energy supply, and the hint of de escalation eased fears of prolonged disruption. Trump’s suggestion that the conflict could end within weeks — even if not accompanied by concrete policy steps — has been enough to improve market sentiment. Good news, although we must move forwards cautiously as Trump has been known to change his mind – often within days rather than weeks.

While hinting at a near term conclusion, Trump has also warned that the U.S. could still hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks if necessary. This mixed messaging has left markets confused, yet hopeful.

Oil prices initially fell on hopes that the conflict might soon conclude, and then rallied overnight as traders focussed on the continued risk of escalation and underlined that it will not be clear sailing from here. Prices climbed from around $98 to nearly $104 per barrel as traders reassessed the likelihood of continued supply disruptions.

For now, markets are likely to remain volatile. Investors are watching closely for any concrete steps toward de escalation — or, conversely, any renewed signs of confrontation. With the Strait of Hormuz still partially disrupted and diplomatic channels conflicted, we ideally need to see more concrete news before we start to relax. Trump’s ability to shift his view in a space of a few hours leaves us all rather nervous when it comes to celebrating good news, so the next week seems rather crucial to see if he follows through on his suggestions that the war could conclude in a few weeks.

Still, Trump’s recent climbdown has injected a measure of hope into a tense time for markets. Whether that hope turns into regional stability will depend on what happens next — not just in Washington and Tehran, but across a crucial energy rich region where even small sparks can have significant global consequences.

I will take a break now for Easter, and write again on the 24th, however if matters should escalate in the Middle East, I will of course pen my views to you. For now, things appear to be settling down and, on that basis, do have a good bank holiday weekend.